Identifying tipping points on disruption-prone urban road networks

Abstract:

Adding small amounts of disruption to a balanced system makes it topple at a tipping point. Do such tipping points exist between different operational states of urban road networks? This study poses this question in the context of multiple simultaneous non-severe disruptions on urban networks. Innumerable combinations of disruptions ensue, which makes it hard to identify a specific combination at which the network shifts to an inferior state. This research -- underpinned on conventional notions of urban road network analysis -- defines disruption, its impact, and the differentiation of states into superior and inferior ones, thereupon introducing a method to find such tipping points. Further, this work attempts to enlighten the practical significance of such abstract states, by introducing derivatives which may be used as early warnings and design norms.